OUTPACEsys Singular Views for Profitable Investing 15 August 2008

OUTPACEsys
Singular Views for Profitable Investing

11 - 15 August 2008

by Paul DeCaro

Contents

Portfolio & Trades
Trends in Equities
Alternate Markets - Bonds - Commodities
Country-specific ETFs
Industry Sectors
Bottom Line

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PORTFOLIO AND TRADES - Since the equities uptrend is continuing fairly smoothly so far, we have let our open trades run. We actually opened a few new ones this week, adding to the existing positions.

We had an initial bullish signal on Aug 5th (see chart below) and the uptrend has continued strongly ever since. Please note that positions opened back then - as shown in the following chart of the Oct08 48 Call options on the Q's have already generated a bit more that 100% profit - so we are enjoying this phase very much !!

QQQQ recent signals

q jv

Signals on QQQ JV - Oct 08 48 CALL option

On the other hand, we had a bearish signal on CRUDE OIL on July 18th and we remain bearish on that (with a caveat that we'll discuss later in the detail section).

GOLD has broken down its long term resistance levels and seems headed down for the long term, although there may be a bounce back in the short term. For the moment, our signal remains down .

IN A NUTSHELL - Stocks continued their move up last week. We enjoyed great opportunities for short-term long trades. Equities indexes have been moving up in the last several weeks but are still below mid-term resistance, which keeps on hold any long-term trades.

Crude Oil traded in a range this week. We expect a few more days of down movement before long term support is hit.

Gold lost 8% this week and started a strong downtrend..

LOOK AHEAD - Given the indecisive posture of the markets, next week we'll focus again on short term trades. We'll continue keeping on hold our long term positions.

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Click here for the video version of this report.

Dear Fellow Investor,

This is the latest of our reports providing status and trends of the major components of the financial markets, both in the US and internationally. We will review the major indexes and key sectors of the market. We will also report on Alternate Markets and on the performance of specific industries.

These reviews form the basis of the in-depth analyses that feed our analytical models, upon which we base our trading approach and drive our trade selection process.

In the interest of not wasting anybody's time, we keep these notes concise and to the point, while we strive to provide clear indications on the identified trends and very actionable suggestions.

We hope you will enjoy the following reviews of this week's events.

If you have any questions or suggestions, please feel free to e-mail us here!

11 - 15 August 2008 Market Trends - Equities The weekly performance comparison chart shows the Nasdaq being stronger than the DJ and S&P, although, as we have seen, all are trending up as shown in the three months chart. The YTD chart show the Nasdaq being much stronger than the others. It is now back to neutral territory for the year, while its DJ and S&P are approximately -12% YTD. The charts at the right show the price history, in terms of relative performance, of the S&P500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq 100 indexes. Weekly and YTD views are shown. BONDS continue their uptrend - we’ve been bullish on bond for the past three weeks now. Individual weekly charts for the S&P, DJ and NASDAQ are on the right showing all three indexes in positive territory, with the ND once again shining with a pleasantly strong bounce up. See below for comments on other market components.	Fig.1 - Dow Jones Ind, NASDAQ100 and S&P500: 1 week comparative performance Fig.2 - DJ Ind, NASDAQ100 and S&P500: YTD comparative performance Fig.3 - S&P500 - weekly chart Fig.4 - DowJones Industrial - weekly chart Fig.6 - NASDAQ 100 - weekly chart
Country-specific ETFs INTERNATIONAL stock had a relatively poor week, losing about 3-4%. Both the three month and the YTD views show them still downtrending - opposite to the S&P which has been recovering nicely. It appears that Countries overseas have been affected more deeply by the turmoil in the financial industry and are possibly in a more pessimistic mood overall. On the right is a chart showing the relative Year-to-Date performance of five of the country-specific ETF's that we chose to represent current round- the-world status.	Fig.7 - Country specific trend comparison: YTD
Market Trends - Commodities GOLD has shown a drastic fall of 8% this week, going into a strong downtrend mode. OIL has been in a range this week, with almost no change overall, although both the one month and the YTD views clearly show the loss in these two commodities. Oil lost more than 30% in the last couple of months - I wonder why gas at the pump hasn’t seen nearly as large a correction… what’s wrong here? Weekly price charts for Oil and Gold both show how dramatic this change has been so far. Crude Oil has still to go a bit further down before seriously hitting on long term support. Things may change then. Weekly charts for Oil and Gold are on the right.	Fig.8 - Crude Oil, Gold and Gov Bonds vs S&P500: 3 months Fig.9 - Crude Oil, Gold and Gov Bonds vs S&P500: YTD Fig.10 - Crude Oil, weekly chart Fig.11 - Gold, weekly chart

Industry Sectors - Best & Worst

This is the Year-to-Date performance of the ETFs we selected to represent Sector performance.

SECTORS are positive overall for the week except for the Financials, whose recovery of the previous few weeks has been set back mid-week. The YTD view shows the Financials fighting in a range now, while most of the sectors (excluding Energy of course!) are trending up.

Legend:
Materials Select Sector, XLB
Energy Select Sector, XLE
Financial Select Sector, XLF
Rydex Russell Top 50, XLG
Industrial Select Sector, XLI
Technology Select Sector, XLK
Consumer Staples Select, XLP
Utilities Select Sector, XLU
Health Care Select Sector, XLV
Consumer Discretionary, XLY

Fig.12 - Sector comparative performance: Year to Date



	Bottom line: Our plan for 2008 is to continue following our proven approach and strategies to achieve outstanding returns, and manage a skillfully diversified portfolio We will do that in the comfort of our safe money management techniques that ensure full control of occasional minor losses while allowing full realization of large profits. As usual, the full details of our market analysis and real-time trade suggestions will be delivered to you via the OUTPACEsys e-mail alert system. * [Want to supercharge your trading skills, boost your profits and limit risk? Read about our proven approach to winning trades and get high accuracy trade alerts at OUTPACEsys * Disclaimer \| Terms Of Use \| Privacy Notice © OUTPACEsys 2005-2008 All Rights Reserved The subjects addressed in this message should not be considered as personalized investment advice. Our employees may answer your general customer service questions, but they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular and personal investment situation. No discussion with our employees should be deemed as personalized investment advice. Any of the investment concepts discussed in our websites and publications should be acted upon only after consulting with your broker or investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the companies involved.